NFL

WS Power Rankings

Week 6 — blending real 2026 results with each team's 2025-based prior.

Model record: 50-29 straight up · Brier 0.23

WS #	Team	OVR	OFF	DEF	Record
1	49ers	94	93	87	5-0
2	Jaguars	93	88	91	4-2
3	Chiefs	89	87	86	4-0
4	Patriots	88	77	98	3-2
5	Vikings	87	73	99	5-0
6	Bills	86	99	70	4-1
7	Seahawks	85	82	86	3-3
8	Bears	84	82	83	3-2
9	Rams	82	83	79	2-3
10	Bengals	82	85	76	3-2
11	Broncos	81	73	90	4-2
12	Ravens	80	85	75	4-1
13	Lions	80	93	69	3-2
14	Texans	80	76	83	2-4
15	Panthers	80	87	73	2-2
16	Steelers	79	76	81	3-2
17	Packers	76	76	77	3-2
18	Falcons	76	76	77	2-3
19	Colts	76	82	72	2-3
20	Cowboys	75	86	68	2-3
21	Buccaneers	75	73	79	1-4
22	Raiders	75	82	70	3-2
23	Browns	73	69	80	3-2
24	Eagles	73	69	80	2-3
25	Jets	73	68	82	2-3
26	Giants	72	69	78	3-1-1
27	Saints	71	75	69	1-4
28	Commanders	68	75	67	1-3-1
29	Chargers	68	64	76	0-5
30	Dolphins	68	65	75	0-5
31	Cardinals	66	75	64	1-4
32	Titans	64	62	75	0-5

Calibration

When we say a team has a 70% chance to win, does that actually happen close to 70% of the time? Every graded NFL game this season, sorted by how confident we were.

WS said	Happened	Games
50-55%	47%	15 (low)
55-60%	73%	11 (low)
60-65%	50%	8 (low)
65-70%	59%	17 (low)
70-75%	78%	9 (low)
75-80%	63%	8 (low)
80-85%	67%	3 (low)
85-90%	100%	3 (low)
90-95%	75%	4 (low)
95-100%	100%	1 (low)

Rows marked "low" have fewer than 30 games — read those as a preview, not a verdict.

This is a straight-up accuracy check, not a betting record — there is no NFL closing line in this pipeline, so unlike the CFB page, there is no "disagreement with Vegas" number here at all, not even an insufficient one.

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