How OVR Works

Every team's preseason OVR blends four inputs into a single 2026 team-strength number:

• 2025 final SP+(regressed toward the mean) as the anchor — last season's proven performance, discounted so one great or bad year doesn't fully carry over.
• 2026 recruiting class strength— how this year's incoming class grades out nationally.
• Returning production %— how much of last year's snaps/production is walking back through the door.
• Overall roster talent score— a composite of the roster's recruiting pedigree across all classes, not just this year's.

These blend into one 2026 preseason team rating (Overall, Offense, and Defense). The moment CFBD publishes live 2026 SP+ in August, the model switches to that in-season number automatically — preseason projection gives way to actual results.

A player's OVR starts by anchoring to their team's offense or defense rating, then moves up or down from there:

• Production percentile — for players with meaningful stats (yards, tackles, sacks, etc.), how they graded out relative to peers at their position.
• Recruiting percentile— used instead of production when there isn't enough of a track record to grade — true freshmen, or positions like offensive line where individual stats don't really exist.
• Depth-chart penalty — backups are docked relative to the starter ahead of them.

• Offensive linemendon't have an individual stat to grade — their ratings lean almost entirely on recruiting pedigree.
• True freshmen and transfersare projections, not track records. A transfer's rating leans on how they produced at their old school, which doesn't always translate directly.
• Preseason numbers are inherently uncertain — every team and player here is a projection until games are actually played. Treat this as a well-reasoned starting point, not a guarantee.